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Saturday, February 18, 2012

Temperature Extremes of Europe, Causes and Impacts

Since the end of January 2012, Europe has been preoccupied with the phenomenon of surface temperature anomalies are very cold compared to the average. In addition to anomalous conditions in the euro area under the temperature average is even extends to the southern Russian region.

Some countries are also feeling the fall of temperature conditions, among others, Ukraine, Italy, Poland, Romania, Bosnia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, France, Croatia, Austria, Greece, Serbia, Russia, Montenegro, Sarajevo, and Turkey.

Cold air is actually occurring at the beginning of February it is not unusual because in the period from December to January and February, the northern hemisphere is experiencing winter. However, the cold is more severe than usual, causing enormous losses both in the transport sector, agriculture, tourism, even resulting in death tolls in the hundreds. Thus, in some European countries have imposed a red alert.

Why did this happen?
Temperatures cooler than average is starting to look at the end of January 2012 in the northern China, Mongolia, southern Russia, and Kazakhstan. These cold conditions spread westward until it reaches the region of Eastern Europe to France and Spain. Air entering the encouragement of the Russian north polar regions aggravate this condition.

Besides bringing very cold polar air, the air flow has led to the formation of anomalous high pressure system in northern Russia and Siberia. High pressure systems are very large this can last long so as to maintain continuity of supply of cooler air continuously into the European region. This is supported by the presence of anomalous low pressure system formed in the south of Austria that also suck up the air around him, including the cold air from the polar regions.
Monthly average surface temperatures in Europe and the Arctic during February (left); and average monthly sea level pressure (right). Note the cold air and high pressure in Europe, and mild air and lower pressure in much of the Arctic. (Picture from: http://www.greenfudge.org/)

Cold temperature conditions like this is not the first time this has happened in Europe. High pressure system, as noted has been responsible for the occurrence of a significant drop in temperature in winter 2009/2010 starts in December and lasts through January and February.

The opposite occurs in the polar region north of Europe to Russia, temperatures even hotter than average. This incident is suspected as a result of circulation flow that brings warmer air from Europe to the Arctic region.

Impact on Indonesia
Air can not be restricted regions of the country and the air in one place to interact with the air elsewhere. Automatically in a place of extreme events will have an impact to other areas. The question is whether the pattern of extreme events in Europe will be a devastating effect on the territory of Indonesia?

Readers already understand that in February of this period most of Indonesia is still experiencing the rainy season and rainfall intensity varies in different regions of Indonesia. The rainy season in Indonesia is caused more by regional factors Asia-Australia monsoon phenomenon called. Monsoon season is affecting the situation in most parts of Asia, Africa, and Australia. Monsoon is more dominate the climate in Indonesia compared to the extreme climate events in Europe and beyond.

Wind patterns in the region of Indonesia is generally not directly affected by cold temperatures in Europe. However, cold temperatures in Europe are assumed to influence and thick snow cover in the region of Tibet.

In the next stage, the snow cover changes predicted by some climatologists the world can affect the Indian monsoon wind circulation patterns. Although not as a whole, inevitably there are some areas in Indonesia are to feel the impact of changes in this circulation pattern.

Climate prediction information from the Boards of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika / BMKG) is expected to provide more in-depth information to the community to the impacts of climate phenomena that occur in foreign countries against climate events around us. It should be our common concern in order to better understand the information suoaya can anticipate the negative impact of the undesirable.

Global data and information from observations made by BMKG seen that until now the influence of extreme temperature events in Europe were not affected significantly. In the event of extreme weather events in Indonesia is caused more by a factor of the rainy season and local conditions of the area alone.

This is because the distances are so far between the incidence of extreme temperatures. However, if the extreme climate phenomena in Europe took place in a long while, his influence could reach parts of Indonesia.

When will it end?
The question is often asked is when will this phenomenon will end? This can be answered by considering the time that this incident was in February, the end of the winter period in the northern hemisphere, this phenomenon will be over before the end of February. However, this is not a guarantee because in recent years is often the case that significant weather aberration.

This phenomenon will expire naturally because to this day have not found a technology that can modify the weather in a large scale. However, by modeling the development of increasingly sophisticated weather forecasts, scientists can monitor and forecast these extreme phenomena more accurately.

We hope that this extreme climate phenomena can be anticipated and the world's population can reap valuable lessons that nature has a pattern of increasingly difficult to understand. Therefore, the challenge to improve weather predictions in the future be a chore for weather experts in the world. *** [ERWIN MS MANSYUR | AMSARI SETYAWAN MSi. | PIKIRAN RAKYAT 16022012]
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